Inside the AI Boom: Bubble Warnings, Market Signals, LP Lessons + More

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OpenLP Newsletter from Sapphire Partners
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OCTOBER 2025

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LP & GP Voices

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NEWSLETTER

AI Venture Investing 2025: USA & Europe
Enterprise & Healthcare AI Lead the Way

European Women in VC’s latest newsletter explores how the global AI funding boom is reshaping venture capital on both sides of the Atlantic. While U.S. investors are making massive, high-valuation bets, Europe remains more cautious. The issue also spotlights surging enterprise AI adoption, Big Tech’s intertwined capital loops, and healthcare’s rapid rise as a leading AI adopter.

European Women in VC
Substack
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LINKEDIN

U.S. Startup Ecosystem Ranking

Peter Walker of Carta shared new data on the top U.S. startup ecosystems, showing the Bay Area’s continued dominance with 41% of all startup capital and over half of all AI funding. The chart breaks down $104 billion in investments across metro areas and sectors, with New York, Boston, Los Angeles, Austin, and Seattle rounding out the leading hubs.

Peter Walker
Carta
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ARTICLE

Courage

When all money is green and every VC reads the same books and largely applies the same heuristics to markets, tech and founders… What really sets anyone apart?
Origins podcast host and Asylum Ventures GP Nicholas Chirls makes the case that courage is the last remaining competitive advantage in venture.

Nick Chirls
Nick Chirls
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PODCAST

The Most Frequent vs Most Important LP Conversations

Adam Marchick joins David Zhou to discuss how GPs often confuse the most frequent LP questions with the most important ones. Drawing on 20+ years as a founder, GP, and LP (including Emory’s $10B endowment), he shares how to communicate risk to new LPs, why trust and references outweigh pitch decks, and how conviction-driven portfolio construction follows the 80/20 rule.

David Zhou, Adam Marchick
Superclusters
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ARTICLE

Treat Your LPAC as People, Not Just Investors

GPs: How are you using your LPAC? As one of your most valuable resources, or a box you have to check? Screendoor’s latest piece reframes the role of the LPAC, not just as a group of institutional investors, but as a resourceful braintrust that can help you navigate tough calls and level up your fund management.

Screendoor
Screendoor
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Origins Banner

Becoming AI Native with Benchmark’s Sarah Tavel

Franchise Funds Episode

Eight years after becoming the first female GP at Benchmark, Sarah Tavel recently took on a new role as Venture Partner that allows her more time to fully immerse herself in AI, all while continuing to make new investments on behalf of Benchmark. She sat down with Beezer Clarkson and Nick Chirls to unpack her learnings over the past few months, including what it means to be truly AI native and what that means for AI tools and the people who use them.

Spotify Youtube Apple
Spotify

Minisode: Can LPs Diversify in an AI-Obsessed World?

Origins Oct 2025 Minisode

Beezer and Nick unpack their recent conversation with Sarah and discuss their takeaways from her recent decision to take a step back at Benchmark to fully focus on AI. They also discuss the current state of venture in light of this decade’s AI boom, and theorize where this will put the ecosystem in the future.

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sydecar

With support from our sponsor

Sydecar automates key back office tasks, like LP onboarding, KYC, and reporting, so managers can stay focused on raising capital, building portfolios, and earning LP trust.

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Featuring Sapphire Partners

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DATA ANALYSIS

Is Venture Broken? What 2,000+ Priced Early-Stage Rounds Tell Us About the State of Seed & Series A

As a team of LPs at Sapphire Partners and founders of OpenLP, this question is one we're hearing almost daily across the VC ecosystem. We set out to find an answer by digging into 3.5 years of PitchBook data. We also compiled the top 10 ranking of most active investors at Seed & A.

Beezer and Evan
Full Analysis
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VC Deep Dives

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REPORT

Q3 PitchBook - NVCA Venture Monitor

According to the Q3 Venture Monitor, 64% of all VC dollars this year have gone to AI & ML, even as sub-$5M rounds hit a decade low. The result? A market where a handful of companies capture most of the capital — while many founders face tougher fundraising conditions. 

PitchBook, NVCA
PitchBook-NVCA
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REPORT

Mapping The Next Generation of Enterprise Software

Redpoint Ventures highlights 64 companies defining the next generation of enterprise software, as AI shifts from enabling work to performing it. Intelligent systems are transforming industries from healthcare to legal to customer support, while new pricing and go-to-market models signal that the application layer will drive the next decade of enterprise value creation.

Redpoint
Redpoint
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REPORT

In the Foothills of a Bubble

Scott T. Slayton, CFA, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, believes we are in the foothills of an equity bubble fueled by AI, abundant liquidity, persistent price momentum, and promiscuous fiscal policy. He breaks down seven classic bubble signals (five already flashing), the anatomy of today’s bull market, and the behavioral shifts that could tip optimism into euphoria.

Scott T. Slayton, CFA
Capital Creek Partners
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What We're Reading This Month

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ARTICLE

Startups and the Shutdown: When Your Primary Customer Folds Overnight

A prolonged U.S. government shutdown is creating serious challenges for startups that rely on federal contracts, grants, or approvals, especially in defense, climate, biotech, and AI. With payments frozen and key agencies stalled, founders face mounting cash pressure and uncertainty.

Aron Solomon
Crunchbase
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ARTICLE

In 2025 So Far, 40% of VC Exit Value Stems from AI

AI is now the engine of venture: by Q3 2025 it accounted for 39.5% of U.S. deal count and 64.3% of deal value, and 40% of all VC exit value this year, per PitchBook. Researchers say AI is becoming foundational across the economy, though the IPO/M&A pipeline remains uneven—fueling debate over whether momentum reflects a true tech shift or a hype cycle.

Allie Garfinkle
Fortune
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ARTICLE

Sequoia Partner Says There's Too Much Venture Capital and Not Enough Companies to Invest In

Roelof Botha argues that VC has become oversaturated. He describes today’s VC environment as a “return-free risk,” noting that to justify current levels of investment, the industry would need dozens more billion-dollar exits each year. His remarks highlight growing pressure on investors to prioritize quality and discipline amid inflated valuations and limited breakout opportunities..

Lakshmi Varanasi
Business Insider
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Help Us Improve the OpenLP Newsletter

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Thanks for reading OpenLP! We’d love your input to help shape future editions. What’s working well? What’s missing? Your feedback will help us make this newsletter more relevant and insightful for the LP and venture community.

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OpenLP is a resource from Sapphire Partners.

Launched in 2012, Sapphire Partners is a Limited Partner seeking to invest in elite early-stage venture capital funds, across the U.S., Europe, and Israel.

OPENLP CO-FOUNDED BY:

Beezer Clarkson
Laura Thompson
Nate Leung
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Sapphire Ventures, LLC,
801 W. 5th St., Ste. 100, , Austin,TX,
78703,United States,

 

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Nothing presented within this article is intended to constitute investment advice, and under no circumstances should any information provided herein be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy an interest in any investment fund managed by Sapphire Ventures, LLC (“Sapphire”). Information provided reflects Sapphires’ views as of a time, whereby such views are subject to change at any point and Sapphire shall not be obligated to provide notice of any change. No assumptions should be made that any investment listed above were or will be profitable. Various content and views contained within this article represent those of third party guests, which do not necessarily reflect the views of Sapphire. Such views are subject to change at any point and do not in any way represent official statements by Sapphire.Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events, results or the actual experience may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in any statement made. Nothing contained in this article may be relied upon as a guarantee or assurance as to the future success of any particular company. Past performance is not indicative of future results.